CN-122022537-A - Equipment guarantee assessment method and device in non-mounting environment

CN122022537ACN 122022537 ACN122022537 ACN 122022537ACN-122022537-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a device for evaluating equipment assurance in an unfinished environment, relates to the technical field of general quality characteristics and comprehensive assurance, and mainly aims to solve the problem of low accuracy of equipment assurance evaluation in the existing unfinished environment. The method comprises the steps of obtaining multiple target spare parts of equipment to be evaluated, single spare part failure rate and installed configuration quantity of the target spare parts, calculating minimum single spare part demand quantity of each target spare part meeting a preset condition guarantee probability threshold according to the single spare part failure rate and the installed configuration quantity, calculating a guarantee probability estimated value and a service level estimated value of the equipment to be evaluated according to the minimum single spare part demand quantity and the expected single spare part demand quantity corresponding to all the target spare parts, and determining a guarantee evaluation result of the equipment to be evaluated according to the guarantee probability estimated value and the service level estimated value. The method is mainly used for evaluating equipment assurance in an unfinished environment.

Inventors

DUAN GUIHUAN
WANG TAO
ZHANG MING
TAO ZHIHUA
ZHU YUNDI

Assignees

广电计量检测（武汉）有限公司
广电计量检测集团股份有限公司
河南广电计量检测有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20251205

Claims (10)

1. A method for equipment assurance assessment in an unfinished environment, comprising: Acquiring failure rates of a plurality of target spare parts of equipment to be evaluated and single spare parts of the target spare parts and installed configuration quantity; Calculating the minimum single spare part demand of each target spare part meeting a preset condition guarantee probability threshold according to the single spare part failure rate and the installed configuration quantity; calculating a guarantee probability estimated value and a service level estimated value of the equipment to be evaluated according to the minimum single spare part demand and the expected single spare part demand corresponding to all the target spare parts; And determining a security assessment result of the equipment to be assessed according to the security probability estimation value and the service level estimation value.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein calculating the probability of assurance estimate from the minimum and expected individual spare part demands for each of all target spare parts comprises: determining the corresponding satisfaction rate molecular calculation numbers of different target spare parts according to the comparison result of the expected single spare part demand and the minimum single spare part demand; calculating a guarantee probability estimated value according to the satisfaction rate calculated number and the minimum single spare part demand quantity; the process for determining the satisfaction rate molecular calculation number of any target spare part comprises the following steps: and taking the expected single spare part demand as a satisfaction rate molecular calculation number when the minimum single spare part demand is greater than or equal to the expected single spare part demand, and taking the minimum single spare part demand as a satisfaction rate molecular calculation number when the minimum single spare part demand is less than the expected single spare part demand.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the guarantee probability estimation value includes a spare part satisfaction rate interval estimation lower limit value and a spare part satisfaction rate single point estimation value; the calculation process of the spare part satisfaction rate interval estimation lower limit value comprises the following steps: taking the total minimum single spare part demand as a sample size according to the difference value of the total minimum single spare part demand and the sum of the calculated numbers of the satisfaction rate molecules of all target spare parts as a failure fixed number, and carrying out iterative optimization solution based on a success-failure model by taking the spare part satisfaction rate as an optimization variable to obtain a spare part satisfaction rate interval estimation lower limit value; the calculation process of the spare part satisfaction rate single-point estimated value comprises the following steps: and taking the ratio of the sum of the calculated numbers of the satisfaction rate molecules to the total minimum single spare part demand as a single point estimated value of the spare part satisfaction rate.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein calculating the service level estimate from the minimum individual spare part demand and the expected individual spare part demand for each of all of the target spare parts comprises: Determining the utilization ratio numerator calculation number and the utilization ratio denominator calculation number corresponding to each of different target spare parts according to the comparison result of the expected single spare part demand and the minimum single spare part demand; Calculating a service level estimated value of the equipment to be evaluated according to the utilization rate numerator calculation number and the utilization rate denominator calculation number; the determining process of the utilization ratio numerator calculation number and the utilization ratio denominator calculation number of any target spare part comprises the following steps: And under the condition that the minimum single spare part demand is greater than or equal to the expected single spare part demand, the utilization ratio numerator calculation number and the utilization ratio denominator calculation number are both used for taking the expected single spare part demand, and under the condition that the minimum single spare part demand is less than the expected single spare part demand, the minimum single spare part demand is used as the utilization ratio numerator calculation number, and the expected single spare part demand is used as the utilization ratio denominator calculation number.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the service level estimate comprises a spare part utilization interval estimate lower limit and a spare part utilization single point estimate; The calculation process of the lower limit value of the spare part utilization ratio interval estimation comprises the following steps: Taking the difference value between the sum of the calculated numbers of the utilization rate denominators and the sum of the calculated numbers of the utilization rate numerator as a failure fixed number, taking the sum of the calculated numbers of the utilization rate denominators as a sample size, and carrying out iterative optimization solving based on a success-failure model by taking the utilization rate of the spare parts as an optimization variable to obtain a lower limit value of the estimation of the utilization rate interval of the spare parts; the calculation process of the spare part utilization single-point estimated value comprises the following steps: And taking the ratio of the utilization ratio numerator calculation number sum to the utilization ratio denominator calculation number sum as a spare part utilization ratio single-point estimation value.
6. The method of claim 1, wherein calculating a minimum individual spare part demand for each target spare part to meet a preset conditional assurance probability threshold based on the individual spare part failure rate and the installed configuration quantity, comprises: Substituting the failure rate, the installed configuration quantity and the checking time of the single spare part of each target spare part into a conditional assurance probability model, taking a preset conditional assurance probability threshold as target output, and back calculating to obtain the minimum single spare part demand of the target spare part; Wherein the preset conditional assurance probability threshold is greater than or equal to 95%.
7. The method according to claim 1, wherein after determining the security assessment result of the device under evaluation according to the security probability estimation value and the service level estimation value, the method further comprises: If the guarantee evaluation result does not meet the guarantee requirement, the expected single spare part demand of the target spare part is adjusted; and returning the step of calculating the estimated value of the guarantee probability and the estimated value of the service level of the equipment to be evaluated according to the minimum single spare part demand and the expected single spare part demand corresponding to all the target spare parts by taking the adjusted expected single spare part demand as an iteration variable, and repeatedly executing the guarantee evaluation of the equipment to be evaluated until the result of the guarantee evaluation meets the guarantee requirement, so as to obtain the target spare part demands of different target spare parts meeting the guarantee requirement.
8. An equipment assurance assessment device in an unfinished environment, comprising: The acquisition module is used for acquiring a plurality of target spare parts of the equipment to be evaluated, the failure rate of the single spare part of the target spare parts and the number of installed configurations; the first calculation module is used for calculating the minimum single spare part demand of each target spare part meeting a preset condition guarantee probability threshold according to the single spare part failure rate and the installed configuration quantity; The second calculation module is used for calculating a guarantee probability estimated value and a service level estimated value of the equipment to be evaluated according to the minimum single spare part demand and the expected single spare part demand corresponding to all the target spare parts; And the determining module is used for determining the guarantee evaluation result of the equipment to be evaluated according to the guarantee probability estimated value and the service level estimated value.
9. A storage medium having stored therein at least one executable instruction for causing a processor to perform operations corresponding to the equipment assurance assessment method in an unaddressed environment according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
10. The terminal is characterized by comprising a processor, a memory, a communication interface and a communication bus, wherein the processor, the memory and the communication interface complete communication with each other through the communication bus; The memory is configured to store at least one executable instruction that causes the processor to perform operations corresponding to the equipment assurance assessment method in an unfinished environment according to any of claims 1 to 7.

Description

Equipment guarantee assessment method and device in non-mounting environment Technical Field The invention relates to the technical field of general quality characteristics and comprehensive guarantee, in particular to a method and a device for evaluating equipment guarantee in an unfinished environment. Background The equipment assurance assessment is a core means for measuring the requirements of the equipment system on the battle integrity and the task sustainability, and the result directly relates to the battle force generation and the full life cycle cost of the equipment. The spare part satisfaction rate and the spare part utilization rate are used as two key indexes (hereinafter referred to as "double rate indexes") in the guaranteed general quality characteristics, and the definition and verification requirements are defined in standards such as GJB 1909A-2009. According to the strict requirements of the existing equipment management system of 'no verification and no uploading', the 'double rate index' must be effectively verified even in the performance test stage of the non-installation. This is of vital importance for avoiding the warranty risk before deployment of the equipment, maintaining and improving its combat power after service of the equipment, and for effectively controlling the full life cycle costs. Currently, mature and widely adopted equipment assurance assessment methods, such as field usage data statistics, test verification methods based on real-world deployment, and the like, have a common premise that physical equipment of the listed troops and operation and maintenance data generated in a real usage environment must be relied on. This set of "post-verification" or "installation verification" modes exposes its significant limitations during development and solution demonstration phases of equipment as yet mass production and deployment. In the 'unfinished' environment, due to the lack of real usage data flow and fault information feedback, the existing method is difficult to construct an accurate assessment model, so that the accuracy of equipment assurance assessment is low. Disclosure of Invention In view of the above, the present invention provides a method and a device for evaluating equipment security in an unpacked environment, which mainly aims to solve the problem of low accuracy of equipment security evaluation in the existing unpacked environment. According to an aspect of the present invention, there is provided an equipment security assessment method in an unfinished environment, including: Acquiring failure rates of a plurality of target spare parts of equipment to be evaluated and single spare parts of the target spare parts and installed configuration quantity; Calculating the minimum single spare part demand of each target spare part meeting a preset condition guarantee probability threshold according to the single spare part failure rate and the installed configuration quantity; calculating a guarantee probability estimated value and a service level estimated value of the equipment to be evaluated according to the minimum single spare part demand and the expected single spare part demand corresponding to all the target spare parts; And determining a security assessment result of the equipment to be assessed according to the security probability estimation value and the service level estimation value. Further, calculating the guarantee probability estimation value according to the minimum single spare part demand and the expected single spare part demand corresponding to all the target spare parts respectively, including: determining the corresponding satisfaction rate molecular calculation numbers of different target spare parts according to the comparison result of the expected single spare part demand and the minimum single spare part demand; calculating a guarantee probability estimated value according to the satisfaction rate calculated number and the minimum single spare part demand quantity; the process for determining the satisfaction rate molecular calculation number of any target spare part comprises the following steps: and taking the expected single spare part demand as a satisfaction rate molecular calculation number when the minimum single spare part demand is greater than or equal to the expected single spare part demand, and taking the minimum single spare part demand as a satisfaction rate molecular calculation number when the minimum single spare part demand is less than the expected single spare part demand. Further, the guarantee probability estimation value comprises a spare part satisfaction rate interval estimation lower limit value and a spare part satisfaction rate single point estimation value; the calculation process of the spare part satisfaction rate interval estimation lower limit value comprises the following steps: taking the total minimum single spare part demand as a sample size according to the difference value of the total mi