CN-122022611-A - Water resource tax implementation effect simulation method and system

CN122022611ACN 122022611 ACN122022611 ACN 122022611ACN-122022611-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a water resource tax implementation effect simulation method and a system, which construct a multi-water source composite dynamic CGE model comprising a two-layer CES nested structure to describe the substitution elasticity between surface water, underground water and unconventional water, equivalently convert the water resource tax rate collected according to the quantity into an effective slave price tax rate, generate a scene parameter matrix and output index data and a visual chart for evaluating the water resource tax implementation effect. The method of the invention obviously improves the water-saving effect and the economic impact assessment precision, greatly improves the flexibility and the efficiency of policy scenario construction and scheme comparison, can continuously describe short-term impact and long-term trend in the policy implementation process, truly reflects the water-saving and economic dynamic effects of the water resource tax in the whole planning period, and provides a set of quantifiable, reproducible and multi-scenario dynamic comparison supporting computer simulation tools and data support for water resource tax policy establishment and assessment.

Inventors

Shan Shihao
Duan Tianchi
DUAN JINGJING
NI HONGZHEN
LIN XICHEN
CHEN GENFA
ZHENG YANG
NIU GENG
ZHANG CHUNLING
WANG JIE
ZHANG JINGWEI

Assignees

中国水利水电科学研究院

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20260120

Claims (10)

1. The water resource tax implementation effect simulation method is characterized by comprising the following steps of: s1, reading input-output tables of areas and industry water data, dividing an economic system into 9 industries, obtaining modeling structured data of a computable general equalization model, balancing input and output in a reference period by adopting a proportion adjustment method, and calibrating two layers of CES water sources to replace elasticity Coefficient of share And capital depreciation rate Forming a reference period parameter set; S2, constructing a multi-water source composite model comprising a two-layer CES nested structure, wherein the first layer of nesting is used for compositing surface water and underground water into conventional water through a CES function, and the second layer of nesting is used for compositing the conventional water and non-conventional water into composite water through the CES function so as to characterize alternative elasticity among the surface water, the underground water and the non-conventional water; s3, setting a reference period tax rate, giving an industry differentiation weight coefficient, obtaining an industry actual tax rate, introducing a tax return coefficient, and equivalently converting a water resource tax collected according to the amount into an effective tax rate; S4, configuring one or more policy scenes including unified tax rate, differentiated tax rate and tax returns, and generating a scene parameter matrix; S5, performing cross-period rolling solution based on the multi-water source composite model, the effective rate of tax and the scene parameter matrix, wherein the solution of the previous solution period is used as an initial condition of the next solution period, so as to obtain a multi-period dynamic equilibrium solution; And S6, outputting index data and a visual chart for evaluating the water resource tax implementation effect based on the multi-stage dynamic equilibrium solution.
2. The method for simulating the effect of water tax implementation according to claim 1, wherein the two-layer CES nest structure in step S2 comprises: The first layer is nested and is used for compositing surface water and underground water into conventional water, and the function form is as follows: , The second layer of nesting is used for compositing the conventional water and the non-conventional water into composite water, and the functional form is as follows: , Wherein, the Representing industry At the position of The water consumption of the regular water is formed by nesting and combining surface water and underground water through CES functions, namely the composite regular water, Representing industry At the position of The desired composite water usage is a combination of regular and non-regular water nested by CES function, Indicating the water source Industry and industry At the position of Phase to water source Is used in the amount of (3), Is the water of the surface of the earth, Is the water in the ground, the water is the water in the ground, Representing industry At the position of Phase to water source Is used for the water consumption of the water pump, In the case of conventional water, Is unconventional water; 、 Is a share parameter, calibrated by the base period data, 、 To replace coefficient and replace elasticity And (5) correlation.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the effective tax rate from price in step S3 is calculated by the following formula: , Wherein, the Representing industry Using Water source The effective tax rate of the period is differentiated according to water source and industry, Is a water source At the position of The reference of the period is the tax measure, Is that The industry differential weight coefficient is used for reflecting the water resource burden of taxation difference among industries and is set by itself, Representing industry Using a water source The water price to be paid out is determined, Representing industry At the position of Tax reduction rate of the enjoyment is usually in the range of 。
4. A water resource tax implementation effect simulation method according to claim 1 or 3, wherein the industry differentiation weight coefficient Setting higher tax rate for the water-consuming industry and water-consuming service industry than other industries, Taking 1.05-1.20.
5. The water resource tax implementation effect simulation method of claim 1, wherein in step S5, the cross-period rolling solution includes a capital accumulation equation based: , Is an industry At the position of The capital inventory of the period of time, Is an industry At the position of The capital inventory of the period of time, In order to be of a depreciation rate, Is an industry In the first place Investment in period; iteratively updating the water usage for the next time period based on the cost minimization condition: , In the formula, Representing an iterative function of water usage determined by the multi-water source composite model and a cost minimization first order condition, For water source s pair industry At the position of The water supply amount in the period, 。
6. The method according to claim 1, wherein the outputting of the index data and the visual chart for evaluating the water tax effect in step S6 includes outputting total water consumption, regular and irregular water consumption, sub-industry added value, and GDP change time-series index.
7. A water resource tax effect simulation system for implementing any one of claims 1 to 6, comprising: The data input and processing unit is used for reading the regional input and output data and the industry water data, dividing an economic system into a plurality of industries, and carrying out consistency balance processing and parameter calibration on the datum period data to generate structural modeling data; The dynamic CGE calculation unit is in communication connection with the data input and processing unit and is used for constructing a multi-water source composite model comprising a two-layer CES nested structure, wherein the two-layer CES nested structure comprises a first layer of conventional water nesting and a second layer of composite water nesting so as to describe the substitution relation between surface water, underground water and non-conventional water; The scene management unit is in communication connection with the dynamic CGE computing unit and is used for receiving policy parameters input by a user, configuring one or more policy scenes including unified tax rate, differentiated tax rate and tax return, and generating a corresponding scene parameter matrix for the dynamic CGE computing unit to call; And the result output and visualization unit is in communication connection with the dynamic CGE calculation unit and is used for receiving the multi-stage dynamic equilibrium solution and outputting a time-series structured data file and a visual chart, wherein the time-series structured data file comprises the total water consumption, the unconventional water consumption, the sub-industry total output and the GDP variation.
8. The water resource tax implementation effect simulation system of claim 7, wherein the data input and processing unit ensures the consistence of the price and caliber of the multi-period data through a double-scale RAS balance algorithm.
9. The water resource tax implementation effect simulation system of claim 7, wherein the first layer of regular water nest is used for compositing surface water and groundwater into regular water, the second layer of composite water nest is used for compositing the regular water and non-regular water into composite water, and the share parameter and the substitution elasticity of the CES nest structure are calibrated based on reference period data.
10. The simulation system of water resource tax effects according to claim 7, wherein the cross-period rolling solution means that the solution of the previous solution period of the dynamic CGE calculation unit is used as an initial condition of the next solution period, and the iterative solution includes a system of dynamic CGE equations of capital accumulation, price recurrence and water demand recurrence.

Description

Water resource tax implementation effect simulation method and system Technical Field The invention relates to the technical intersection field of computer simulation and resource economic policy analysis, in particular to a water resource tax implementation effect simulation method and system based on a dynamic computable general balance model and multi-water source composite nesting. Background The water resource tax is taken as an important economic means for strengthening the water saving constraint, and is tried on and popularized gradually in a plurality of areas. The existing water resource tax effect evaluation method mainly depends on an input-output model or a static computable general balance (CGE) model, and performs one-time comparison on water consumption and economic output before and after water price adjustment, or performs effect analysis on a single water source only in an industry level. For example ,Zhao J, et al. Impact of water price reform on water conservation and economic growth in China[J]. Economic Analysis and Policy, 2016. and Lin X, etal. Impact of water rights transaction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China based on an improved computable general equilibrium model[J]. Water, 2021. the above studies show that CGE models exhibit good analytical capabilities in assessing policies such as water price reform, water right trade, etc. However, when research focuses on a specific policy of water resource tax, the existing evaluation method still has obvious technical limitations, and is difficult to meet the requirements of high-precision and high-efficiency simulation. Firstly, the existing model is insufficient in describing the heterogeneity and substitution effect of water resources. In a real economic system, a water user can dynamically select and replace different types of water sources such as surface water, underground water, unconventional water (such as reclaimed water and seawater desalination water) and the like according to cost difference, and the dynamic selection and replacement are one of core mechanisms for evaluating the effect of water resource tax policies. However, most of the current CGE model researches on water resource tax neglect the substitution relation among different water sources, and the water source is usually simplified into a single water source, so that the substitution relation among surface water, underground water and unconventional water cannot be described, and the evaluation result is distorted. This simplification may lead to the model overestimating the impact of tax on water costs, thereby exaggerating its negative impact on economy and underestimating its potential to promote non-regular water utilization and save regular water. Although the learner distinguished different water types in the water price study, it was not applied to dynamic assessment of tax policies (e.g Luckmann J, et al. An integrated economic model of multiple types and uses of water[J]. Water Resources Research, 2014.）. Secondly, the mainstream evaluation method is static analysis and lacks dynamic characterization capability. The prior researches are usually based on single basic period data for carrying out comparative static analysis of policy or not, and the method is difficult to simulate the trans-period and accumulated influence such as Shihao Shan (just a haar) and the like caused by tax rate adjustment change, technical progress and demand evolution in the whole implementation period Evaluation of Water Saving and Economy Impact for Tax Reform Policy Using CGE Model with Integrated Multiple Types of Water[J]. Water,2023,15,2118. Finally, policy scenario construction and scheme selection is necessarily poor in flexibility and efficiency. When comparing different tax rates, subsidies or returning schemes, the traditional method needs to repeatedly split the model, readjust the model structure or parameters, independently operate the model and repeatedly operate, the process is large in working quantity and labor, the consistency of the data caliber and the calculation logic is difficult to ensure, meanwhile, the calculation redundancy is high, the model reconstruction workload is large, the consistency of the data caliber and the model calculation logic is difficult to ensure, the comparability and the simulation efficiency of the simulation result are reduced, and the comparability and the simulation efficiency of the simulation result are reduced. Therefore, an integrated technical solution is urgently needed in the art, and the integrated technical solution can be 1) finely describing the alternative elasticity among multiple types of water resources, 2) realizing the multi-stage dynamic rolling simulation of the policy effect, and 3) supporting the flexible configuration and the efficient comparison of multiple policy situations. Disclosure of Invention Aiming at the problems, the invention provides the water resource tax implementation effect si