CN-122022613-A - Emergency exercise simulation method and system applying soldier chess deduction

CN122022613ACN 122022613 ACN122022613 ACN 122022613ACN-122022613-A

Abstract

The application relates to the technical field of emergency, in particular to an emergency exercise simulation method and system for applying soldier chess deduction, wherein the method comprises the steps of acquiring a HAZOP report and analyzing risk element data in the HAZOP report; and performing chess piece mapping based on the structured risk data set, building a chess piece deduction model based on a preset evolution rule to perform deduction simulation, and outputting a chess piece deduction time sequence data set. According to the application, a soldier chess deduction mechanism is introduced into the emergency exercise simulation, so that the whole flow digitization from the historical risk information to the simulation deduction process can be realized, and a decision maker is assisted to carry out risk prediction and response strategy evaluation.

Inventors

LIU BOYANG
SU HUITING
MENG QIANG
SONG JIFENG
ZHANG YONG
Cai Anzhi
WANG ZHEYUAN

Assignees

赛飞特工程技术集团有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20260414

Claims (10)

1. An emergency exercise simulation method applying soldier chess deduction is characterized by comprising the following steps: a report analysis step of acquiring a HAZOP report and analyzing risk element data in the HAZOP report; a data set acquisition step, namely constructing a risk evolution path map based on the risk element data, and storing the risk evolution path map as structural data to obtain a structural risk data set; And a deduction simulation step, wherein the chess piece mapping is performed based on the structured risk data set, a chess deduction model is constructed based on a preset evolution rule to perform deduction simulation, and a chess deduction time sequence data set is output.
2. The emergency exercise simulation method using chess deduction according to claim 1, wherein the report parsing step includes: A text semantic analysis step, namely extracting risk element data in the HAZOP report based on a pre-trained text analysis model, wherein the risk element data comprises process nodes, risk sources, trigger prompts, trigger conditions, a result chain and a safety barrier, and the result chain comprises an initial accident, a derivative accident and a secondary hazard; And an accident analysis step, namely determining occurrence probabilities of initial accidents, derivative accidents and secondary hazards in the result chain based on triggering conditions in the risk element data and the result chain, and predicting occurrence time delay and influence range of the accidents in the result chain based on the result quantitative analysis model.
3. The emergency exercise simulation method using chess deduction according to claim 2, wherein the data set acquisition step further comprises: Creating entity nodes and relationship edges based on the risk element data, and mapping to generate a risk evolution path map, wherein the entity nodes in the risk evolution path map comprise a risk source, a trigger event, an accident result, an accident influence and an emergency resource, and the relationship edges comprise a trigger relationship, a derivative relationship, a dependency relationship and an influence relationship, and the occurrence time delay and the influence range are combined to configure relationship attributes for the entity relationship; And a data set generation step, wherein the risk evolution path map is converted into structural data to obtain a structural risk data set, and the structural risk data set comprises an accident ID field, a trigger condition field, a trigger time field, an accident result field, an evolution probability field, an influence object field, an influence range field and a quantization attribute parameter field.
4. The emergency practice simulation method employing chess deduction according to claim 2, wherein the accident analysis step further comprises: Acquiring the failure rate of a corresponding risk source of the process node as the failure rate of a bottom event, and acquiring the operation failure rate data of staff and the historical fluctuation data of process parameters as the failure rate of an intermediate event; constructing a top event as an initial accident based on an accident tree calculation model, inputting an intermediate event and a bottom event associated with the initial accident, performing OR logic operation based on the failure rate of the bottom event to obtain the failure rate of the intermediate event, and performing OR logic operation based on the failure rate of the intermediate event to obtain the annual occurrence probability of the initial accident; Determining derived accidents and/or secondary hazards associated with the initial accidents, configuring triggering probabilities for the derived accidents and/or secondary hazards, and calculating the annual occurrence probabilities of the derived accidents and/or secondary hazards based on the annual occurrence probabilities of the initial accidents and the triggering probabilities.
5. The method for simulating an emergency exercise using a chess deduction according to claim 4, wherein the accident analysis step further comprises: predicting the occurrence time delay and the influence range of the initial accident and the derivative accident based on the result quantitative analysis model.
6. The emergency practice simulation method employing chess deductions according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the deduction simulation step comprises: Defining chessmen, namely configuring emergency practice entities, accident scenes and accident sites, and constructing and defining chessmen according to the structured risk data set, wherein the chessmen comprise entity chessmen, accident chessmen and chessboard chessmen; A deduction rule construction step, namely inputting accident types, environment variables and emergency resource configuration into a rule parameter configurator to generate a reference deduction rule base, wherein the reference deduction rule base comprises entity attribute evolution rules, accident evolution rules and countermeasure rules; And a countermeasure exercise step, based on the reference deduction rule base, simulating accident evolution and emergency countermeasure process through round-trip system, a real-time event driven hybrid deduction algorithm and a random event generator, and outputting the soldier chess deduction time sequence data set.
7. The simulation method for emergency exercises using a soldier chess deduction according to claim 6, wherein the random event generator adopts a modified monte carlo algorithm to introduce a historical exercise accident probability distribution to generate an emergency.
8. The emergency practice simulation method of claim 6, wherein each piece of time series data in the chess deduction time series data set comprises: timestamp, accident type, impact range, affected pawn list, unaffected pawn list.
9. An emergency practice simulation system applying soldier chess deduction, which is characterized by comprising: A report analysis unit, configured to obtain a HAZOP report, and analyze risk element data in the HAZOP report; the data set acquisition unit is used for constructing a risk evolution path map based on the risk element data, and storing the risk evolution path map as structural data to obtain a structural risk data set; And the deduction simulation unit is used for performing chess piece mapping based on the structured risk data set, constructing a chess deduction model based on a preset evolution rule to perform deduction simulation, and outputting a chess deduction time sequence data set.
10. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the emergency practice simulation method of applying chess deductions as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 8 when the computer program is executed.

Description

Emergency exercise simulation method and system applying soldier chess deduction Technical Field The application relates to the technical field of emergency, in particular to an emergency exercise simulation method and system applying soldier chess deduction. Background Along with the continuous deep construction of emergency management informatization, the existing emergency drilling platform has significantly progressed in drilling deduction technology. Early exercise systems mainly rely on static plan text and simple flow simulation, and in recent years, the system is gradually developed into a comprehensive platform integrating various technologies such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS), three-dimensional visualization, discrete event simulation and the like. Some advanced systems also introduce Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) technologies, enabling high-immersion scene restoration and interactive training. Meanwhile, some platforms begin to attempt to combine a system dynamics model with a data-driven method for evaluating the scheduling efficiency and the overall response capability of emergency resources, and push the exercise to be converted from 'flow demonstration' to 'actual combat deduction'. However, the related art still has some significant drawbacks in application. Firstly, most systems adopt preset script driving, lack the capability of flexibly coping with emergency events, and are difficult to truly reflect uncertainty and dynamic changes in complex environments. Secondly, the existing simulation is concentrated on a strategy or battle layer, and the key details of tactical execution, on-site command, multi-department coordination and the like are described roughly, so that a difference exists between a deduction result and actual operation. In addition, the system generally lacks an effective decision feedback mechanism, and cannot evaluate and guide judgment and treatment of participants in real time, so that the learning effect of exercise is affected. Meanwhile, the data fusion degree among the modules is not high, a unified and coherent deduction environment is difficult to form, and the practicability and expansibility of the whole system are limited. Disclosure of Invention In a first aspect, the application provides an emergency exercise simulation method using soldier chess deduction, comprising the following steps: a report analysis step of acquiring a history risk analysis report and analyzing risk element data in the HAZOP report (Hazard and Operability Study, abbreviated as HAZOP); a data set acquisition step, namely constructing a risk evolution path map based on the risk element data, and storing the risk evolution path map as structural data to obtain a structural risk data set, wherein the structural risk data set is used for defining the association relation of an accident source, a derivative path and an influence element, and comprises an accident ID field, a trigger condition field, a trigger time field, a derivative result field, an evolution probability field, an influence range field and a quantized attribute parameter field; and a deduction simulation step, wherein chess pieces are mapped based on the structured risk data set, a chess deduction model is built based on a preset evolution rule to perform deduction simulation, a front scene is generated, dynamic deduction is performed, a chess deduction time sequence data set is output, and prediction and evaluation of emergency risks are realized. Based on the steps, the application introduces a chess deduction mechanism in the emergency practice simulation, and can realize the whole flow digitalization from the historical risk information to the simulation deduction process. The structural risk data set is used for defining the logic association of the accident source, the evolution path and the influence factors, so that a systematic risk evolution model can be established. Compared with the traditional static exercise mode, the method can dynamically present the accident development trend, and the reality and response pertinence of the exercise are improved. Meanwhile, the scientificity and the accuracy of deduction simulation are improved through quantization parameter control and evolution probability setting. The final formed chess deduction time sequence data set not only can assist a decision maker in carrying out risk prediction and response strategy evaluation, but also has stronger universality and expansibility, and is suitable for simulating different types of emergency scenes. In some of these embodiments, the report parsing step includes: A text semantic analysis step, namely extracting risk element data in the HAZOP report based on a pre-trained text analysis model, wherein the risk element data comprises a process node, a risk source, a trigger prompt, a trigger condition, a result chain and a safety barrier, and the result chain comprises an initial accident, a derivative acci