CN-122023061-A - Power balance analysis method and system considering large-scale distributed new energy access

CN122023061ACN 122023061 ACN122023061 ACN 122023061ACN-122023061-A

Abstract

The invention discloses a power balance analysis method considering large-scale distributed new energy access, which comprises the steps of obtaining operation data information of a target power system, selecting a day of maximum load in the midday, selecting a date with the maximum load in the midday being not smaller than a set proportion of a maximum load value of the maximum load in the midday within a set time period, constructing a wind power output array and a photovoltaic output array corresponding to the dates, sorting output values, calculating the output coefficient array after sorting and the output coefficient considering a set confidence interval, calculating to obtain a power balance analysis index, and completing power balance analysis of the target power system considering large-scale distributed new energy access. The invention also discloses a system for realizing the power balance analysis method considering large-scale distributed new energy access. The invention not only realizes the balance analysis of the power system considering the large-scale distributed new energy access, but also has higher reliability and better accuracy.

Inventors

XIE YUZHENG
DENG XIAOLIANG
LIU XIAODAN
Hou Yanruo
HU HUANYU
HUANG HONGYI

Assignees

国网湖南省电力有限公司经济技术研究院
国网湖南省电力有限公司
国家电网有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20260127

Claims (8)

1. A power balance analysis method considering large-scale distributed new energy access comprises the following steps: s1, acquiring operation data information of a target power system; S2, selecting a day of the maximum load of the midday according to the data information obtained in the step S1, selecting a date of which the maximum load of the midday is not less than a set proportion of the maximum load value of the maximum load of the midday in a set time period, and constructing a maximum load array of the midday; S3, constructing a wind power output array and a photovoltaic output array corresponding to the date according to the maximum load array in the midday constructed in the step S2; S4, sorting the output values according to the data information obtained in the step S3, and calculating an ordered output coefficient array and an output coefficient considering a set confidence interval; S5, calculating to obtain an electric power balance analysis index according to the data information obtained in the step S4; and S6, completing the power balance analysis of the target power system considering the large-scale distributed new energy access according to the power balance analysis index obtained in the step S6.
2. The power balance analysis method considering large-scale distributed new energy access according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining of the operation data information of the target power system in step S1 specifically comprises the following steps: Operational data information of the target power system is acquired, The operation data information comprises load data information, new energy output data information and new energy installation quantity data information.
3. The power balance analysis method considering large-scale distributed new energy access according to claim 2, wherein the step S2 is characterized in that according to the data information obtained in the step S1, a day of the maximum load in the middle of the day is selected, a date of a set proportion of the maximum load value of the maximum load in the middle of the day is selected in a set period of time, and a maximum load array in the middle of the day is constructed, and the method specifically comprises the following steps: Selecting a maximum load day in the middle of a day according to the data information obtained in the step S1, and obtaining a corresponding maximum load value; a date that the maximum load of the midday within the set time period is not less than 95% of the maximum load value of the maximum load day of the midday is selected; Constructing an afternoon maximum load array Expressed as , For the afternoon maximum load array An nth load value of (a); Obtaining a maximum load array corresponding to the midday load at night according to the date corresponding to the load Is that Wherein Is that The i-th element of (a); Calculating the output coefficient between the load in the middle of noon and the load in the evening Is that Calculating Average value of (2) to obtain the ratio of the maximum load at night to the maximum load at noon ; The power balance analysis of the power system is carried out, if the maximum load of the power grid occurs in the midday, the formula is expressed as Then If the maximum load of the power grid occurs at night, the formula is expressed as Then 。
4. The method for analyzing power balance considering large-scale distributed new energy access according to claim 3, wherein the method for analyzing power balance is characterized in that in step S3, the maximum load array in noon constructed according to step S2 is constructed, and a wind power output array and a photovoltaic output array corresponding to dates are constructed, and specifically comprises the following steps: according to the maximum load array in the midday constructed in the step S2, constructing a wind power output array and a photovoltaic output array corresponding to the date; The wind power output array is expressed as Wherein The method comprises the steps of setting an Nth wind power output value in a wind power output array; the photovoltaic output array is expressed as Wherein The M-th photovoltaic output value in the photovoltaic output array.
5. The method for analyzing the power balance taking into account the large-scale distributed new energy access according to claim 4, wherein the step S4 is characterized in that the step S3 is performed with force value sorting, and the sorted force coefficient array and the force coefficient taking into account the confidence interval setting are calculated, and specifically comprises the following steps: Wind power output array The output values of the wind power are arranged in sequence from big to small, and the ordered wind power output coefficient array is calculated Is that Wherein The ordered wind power output coefficient array The ith wind power output coefficient, and , In order to arrange the ith wind power output value in the wind power output array from large to small, The wind power installation capacity corresponding to the ith wind power output value in the wind power output array arranged in sequence from large to small; Array of photovoltaic output The output values of each photovoltaic are arranged in sequence from big to small, and the ordered photovoltaic output coefficient array is calculated Is that Wherein For ordered photovoltaic output coefficient array The j-th photovoltaic output coefficient, and , In order to arrange the j-th photovoltaic output value in the photovoltaic output array from the big to the small, The photovoltaic installed capacity corresponding to the j-th photovoltaic output value in the photovoltaic output array arranged in sequence from large to small; considering the 95% confidence interval, and obtaining the wind power output coefficient considering the 95% confidence interval Is that Wherein The corresponding output coefficient value in the sequenced wind power output array after the 95% confidence interval is considered; Considering the 95% confidence interval, obtaining the photovoltaic output coefficient considering the 95% confidence interval Is that Wherein The corresponding output coefficient value in the photovoltaic output array after sequencing is considered after the 95% confidence interval.
6. The method for analyzing the power balance taking into account the large-scale distributed new energy access according to claim 5, wherein the step S5 is characterized in that the power balance analysis index is calculated according to the data information obtained in the step S4, and specifically comprises the following steps: The power balance analysis index is calculated by adopting the following formula : In the middle of Assembling capacity for the wind turbine; Is the photovoltaic installed capacity; to consider only the power balance parameters at the wind power and photovoltaic power coefficients with 95% confidence intervals, Indicating that a power gap exists in the power system, Indicating that there is a surplus of power to power.
7. The method for analyzing the power balance of the target power system according to the step S6, wherein the power balance analysis index obtained in the step S6 is used for completing the power balance analysis of the target power system according to the step S6, and the method specifically comprises the following steps: And carrying out power balance analysis of the target power system by adopting the following rules, wherein the power balance analysis is used for considering large-scale distributed new energy access: When (when) At the time of the power balance analysis index The smaller the power system is, the greater the possibility of the power system having a power gap is, and the power balance analysis index is The larger the power system is, the less the possibility that the power system has a power gap is; When (when) At the time of the power balance analysis index The smaller the power system is, the smaller the possibility of the power surplus exists in the power system is, and the power balance analysis index is The larger the likelihood that there is a surplus of power in the power system.
8. A system for realizing the power balance analysis method considering large-scale distributed new energy access according to one of claims 1-7 is characterized by comprising a data acquisition module, a load construction module, an output construction module, a coefficient calculation module, an index calculation module and a balance analysis module, wherein the data acquisition module, the load construction module, the output construction module, the coefficient calculation module, the index calculation module and the balance analysis module are sequentially connected in series, the data acquisition module is used for acquiring operation data information of a target power system and uploading the data information to the load construction module, the load construction module is used for selecting a day of the maximum load among the noons according to the acquired data information, selecting a date of the maximum load among the noons within a set time period which is not smaller than a set proportion of the maximum load among the noon maximum load, constructing a maximum load array, and uploading the data information to the power construction module, the output construction module is used for constructing a corresponding wind power array and a photovoltaic output array according to the constructed maximum load array, uploading the data information to the coefficient calculation module is used for acquiring the coefficient according to the received data information, the coefficient calculation module is used for calculating the balance analysis module to obtain the balance analysis module after the obtained according to the obtained data information, the obtained data information is sequenced according to the obtained data information, the power balance analysis module is used for analyzing the data obtained according to the obtained data information, and (3) finishing the power balance analysis of the target power system considering the large-scale distributed new energy access.

Description

Power balance analysis method and system considering large-scale distributed new energy access Technical Field The invention belongs to the field of electric automation, and particularly relates to a power balance analysis method and system considering large-scale distributed new energy access. Background Along with the development of economic technology and the improvement of living standard of people, electric energy becomes an indispensable secondary energy source in the production and living of people, and brings endless convenience to the production and living of people. Therefore, ensuring stable and reliable supply of electric energy becomes one of the most important tasks of the electric power system. At present, more and more new energy power generation systems are started to be integrated into the power system and generate power, and the randomness and intermittence of the output of the new energy power generation systems bring great challenges to the balance analysis of the power system. In addition, there is an additional impact on the price of time-of-use electricity in today's power systems, which is in addition to the review analysis process that would further impact the power system. At present, a balance analysis scheme of a power system is still adopted, namely, a power balance scheme is adopted, wherein the power balance scheme is analyzed by taking a 95% confidence interval into consideration in a given time period, obtaining a new energy output coefficient and calculating the output of the new energy output coefficient. The proposal can not fully consider the large-scale development of new energy, especially the large-scale development of distributed new energy, and has the problems of poor reliability and poor accuracy due to the fact that the new energy has larger output under the condition of large load and the condition of smaller load. Disclosure of Invention The invention aims to provide a power balance analysis method which is high in reliability and good in accuracy and considers large-scale distributed new energy access. The second object of the present invention is to provide a system for implementing the power balance analysis method considering large-scale distributed new energy access. The invention provides a power balance analysis method considering large-scale distributed new energy access, which comprises the following steps: s1, acquiring operation data information of a target power system; S2, selecting a day of the maximum load of the midday according to the data information obtained in the step S1, selecting a date of which the maximum load of the midday is not less than a set proportion of the maximum load value of the maximum load of the midday in a set time period, and constructing a maximum load array of the midday; S3, constructing a wind power output array and a photovoltaic output array corresponding to the date according to the maximum load array in the midday constructed in the step S2; S4, sorting the output values according to the data information obtained in the step S3, and calculating an ordered output coefficient array and an output coefficient considering a set confidence interval; S5, calculating to obtain an electric power balance analysis index according to the data information obtained in the step S4; and S6, completing the power balance analysis of the target power system considering the large-scale distributed new energy access according to the power balance analysis index obtained in the step S6. The step S1 of acquiring the operation data information of the target power system specifically includes the following steps: Operational data information of the target power system is acquired, The operation data information comprises load data information, new energy output data information and new energy installation quantity data information. The step S2 of selecting the day of the maximum load of the midday according to the data information obtained in the step S1, selecting the date of the set proportion of the maximum load value of the maximum load of the midday in the set time period, and constructing a maximum load array of the midday, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps: Selecting a maximum load day in the middle of a day according to the data information obtained in the step S1, and obtaining a corresponding maximum load value; a date that the maximum load of the midday within the set time period is not less than 95% of the maximum load value of the maximum load day of the midday is selected; Constructing an afternoon maximum load array Expressed as,For the afternoon maximum load arrayAn nth load value of (a); Obtaining a maximum load array corresponding to the midday load at night according to the date corresponding to the load Is thatWhereinIs thatThe i-th element of (a); Calculating the output coefficient between the load in the middle of noon and the load in the evening Is thatCalculatingAverage value of (2) to