CN-122024445-A - Mountain torrent early warning method and system based on digital twin technology

CN122024445ACN 122024445 ACN122024445 ACN 122024445ACN-122024445-A

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of mountain torrents early warning, and particularly discloses a mountain torrents early warning method and system based on a digital twin technology. The method comprises the steps of calculating data offset between a predicted parameter of a digital twin model and real-time data in a continuous period, judging that an offset trend is formed when the data offset continuously exceeds a preset offset threshold, triggering early warning through identifying the offset trend, determining key parameters from a plurality of predicted parameters forming the offset trend to generate a risk predicted parameter, generating a plurality of early warning schemes by combining with selectable parameters, and generating and outputting evacuation suggestion information through a multi-scheme evaluation and preferred mechanism. According to the invention, the pre-warning is triggered by identifying the offset trend, so that the capturing of the mountain torrent disaster precursor is realized, the false alarm rate and the false alarm rate are reduced, the prediction accuracy is improved through a multi-scheme evaluation and preferred mechanism, and the actual combat value and the guiding effect of the pre-warning are enhanced.

Inventors

WEI ZHENXING
ZHANG LULU
XIE XIAOPING
TANG FENG
ZHANG YANPENG

Assignees

上海旭宇信息科技有限公司

Dates

Publication Date: 20260512
Application Date: 20260209

Claims (10)

1. A mountain torrent early warning method based on a digital twin technology is characterized by comprising the following steps: Executing mountain torrent early warning when the deviation trend is judged to be formed; the offset trend is formed by that the data offset between the prediction parameter generated based on the digital twin model and the real-time data exceeds a preset offset threshold value in a continuous preset number of periods; The condition for judging the forming of the offset trend further comprises that the data offset calculated in the current period is the same as the change direction of the data offset calculated in the previous period; the method comprises the steps of determining key parameters from a plurality of prediction parameters forming an offset trend, generating risk prediction parameters based on the key parameters, generating and outputting evacuation suggestion information based on the risk prediction parameters; The method comprises the steps of obtaining instantaneous water flow change between real-time data corresponding to two calling time points in a period formed by the two adjacent calling time points, and processing the instantaneous water flow change as input through a digital twin model to generate the prediction parameters.
2. A method of mountain torrents warning based on digital twinning technology as claimed in claim 1, wherein the obtaining instantaneous water flow changes includes: and calculating the average water flow offset according to the real-time data corresponding to the two calling time points, and taking the average water flow offset as instantaneous water flow change.
3. A method of mountain torrents warning based on digital twinning technology as claimed in claim 1, further comprising: The method comprises the steps of obtaining monitoring data of a mountain torrent prone area, wherein the monitoring data comprise rainfall data, soil humidity data and hydrologic data which are historical data and real-time data, and sequentially generating a plurality of calling time points from an initial time point by taking a preset sampling time interval as a period based on the monitoring data.
4. A method of mountain torrents warning based on digital twinning technology as claimed in claim 1, wherein the determining key parameters from a plurality of predicted parameters forming an offset trend includes: The last prediction parameter forming the offset trend is determined as a key parameter, and the step of generating the risk prediction parameter comprises the steps of constructing a prediction curve based on one or more key parameters, and extracting parameters in a preset prediction period from the prediction curve as the risk prediction parameter.
5. The method for mountain torrents warning based on digital twinning technology according to claim 1, wherein the generating and outputting evacuation advice information further includes, before: combining the risk prediction parameters with optional parameters including the water flow disturbance parameters and the air flow disturbance parameters of the prediction area to generate a plurality of evaluation parameter sets, wherein each evaluation parameter set corresponds to one early warning scheme, selecting an early warning scheme with the minimum deviation value as a standard scheme by calculating the deviation value between the evaluation parameter set corresponding to each early warning scheme and the reference data, and generating and outputting evacuation suggestion information based on the standard scheme.
6. The method for mountain torrents warning based on digital twinning technology of claim 5, wherein the evacuation suggestion information includes: The airflow evacuation scheme comprises demarcation information of an odor distribution area and demarcation information of an alarm area, and the water flow evacuation scheme comprises inflow evacuation information and return water evacuation information.
7. The mountain torrent early warning system based on the digital twinning technology is characterized by comprising a digital twinning model, a trend monitoring module, a risk early warning module and an information output module; The trend monitoring module is used for periodically acquiring real-time data, receiving prediction parameters generated by the digital twin model, and determining to form an offset trend when the data offset continuously exceeds a preset offset threshold value in a preset number of periods by calculating the data offset between the prediction parameters and the real-time data; The risk early warning module is used for determining an offset trend for the response trend monitoring module and determining key parameters from a plurality of prediction parameters forming the offset trend; generating risk prediction parameters based on the key parameters; combining the risk prediction parameters with the selectable parameters to generate a plurality of evaluation parameter sets respectively corresponding to different early warning schemes; selecting a standard scheme by comparing the plurality of evaluation parameter sets with the reference data; and the information output module is used for outputting the evacuation suggestion information generated by the risk early warning module.
8. The system of claim 7, wherein the trend monitoring module is further configured to obtain instantaneous water flow changes between real-time data corresponding to two adjacent calling time points, and provide the instantaneous water flow changes to the digital twin model to generate the prediction parameters.
9. A digital twinning-based mountain torrent warning system as claimed in claim 7, wherein determining key parameters from a plurality of predicted parameters forming an offset trend comprises: and the risk early warning module generates risk prediction parameters by constructing a prediction curve based on one or more key parameters and extracting parameters in a preset prediction period from the prediction curve as the risk prediction parameters.
10. A digital twinning-based mountain torrent warning system as claimed in claim 7, wherein the selectable parameters include a predicted zone water flow disturbance parameter and a predicted zone air flow disturbance parameter; The evacuation proposal information comprises an airflow evacuation scheme and a water flow evacuation scheme which are generated based on the distribution condition of the sensors, wherein the airflow evacuation scheme comprises demarcation information of an odor distribution area and demarcation information of an alarm area, and the water flow evacuation scheme comprises water inlet evacuation information and water return evacuation information.

Description

Mountain torrent early warning method and system based on digital twin technology Technical Field The invention belongs to the technical field of mountain torrents early warning, and particularly relates to a mountain torrents early warning method and system based on a digital twin technology. Background The mountain torrent is mostly triggered by short-time heavy rainfall or continuous storm, is often accompanied by secondary disasters with huge destructiveness such as landslide, mud-rock flow and the like, has the characteristics of strong burstiness and high disaster risk, reveals the macroscopic rule of mountain torrent occurrence through the statistical analysis of historical disaster data in the prior art, can guide the long-term mountain torrent planning and treatment, cannot predict mountain torrent events in real time, lacks the prejudging capability on disaster occurrence time, specific positions and influence ranges, and is difficult to meet the instant requirement of disaster pre-warning; In the prior art, the mountain torrent is monitored by an automatic monitoring system deployed at a position where the mountain torrent is likely to be found, the complexity and nonlinear characteristics of the flood production process are usually easily ignored, an alarm is triggered only when the rainfall or the water level exceeds a preset value, and meanwhile, the multisource heterogeneous data such as the rainfall, the water level, the soil water content and the like are difficult to fuse, so that the early warning accuracy is insufficient; In addition, the mountain torrent monitoring in the prior art is difficult to deduce the formation process and development situation of a flood peak according to the change of real-time monitoring parameters, and the lack of prospective early warning information is difficult to timely inform downstream personnel evacuation and emergency response. In view of the above, the invention provides a mountain torrent early warning method and system based on a digital twin technology. Disclosure of Invention The invention aims to provide a mountain torrent early warning method and system based on a digital twin technology, which are used for solving the problem that in the prior art, the mountain torrent prediction and early warning are inaccurate because the change trend of mountain torrents cannot be analyzed according to actual measured parameters. In order to achieve the aim of the invention, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: a mountain torrent early warning method based on a digital twin technology comprises the following steps: Executing mountain torrent early warning when the deviation trend is judged to be formed; the offset trend is formed by that the data offset between the prediction parameter generated based on the digital twin model and the real-time data exceeds a preset offset threshold value in a continuous preset number of periods; The condition for judging the forming of the offset trend further comprises that the data offset calculated in the current period is the same as the change direction of the data offset calculated in the previous period; the method comprises the steps of determining key parameters from a plurality of prediction parameters forming an offset trend, generating risk prediction parameters based on the key parameters, generating and outputting evacuation suggestion information based on the risk prediction parameters; The method comprises the steps of obtaining instantaneous water flow change between real-time data corresponding to two calling time points in a period formed by the two adjacent calling time points, and processing the instantaneous water flow change as input through a digital twin model to generate the prediction parameters. Preferably, the acquiring the instantaneous water flow change includes: and calculating the average water flow offset according to the real-time data corresponding to the two calling time points, and taking the average water flow offset as instantaneous water flow change. Preferably, the method further comprises: The method comprises the steps of obtaining monitoring data of a mountain torrent prone area, wherein the monitoring data comprise rainfall data, soil humidity data and hydrologic data which are historical data and real-time data, and sequentially generating a plurality of calling time points from an initial time point by taking a preset sampling time interval as a period based on the monitoring data. Preferably, the determining key parameters from the plurality of predicted parameters forming the offset trend comprises: The last prediction parameter forming the offset trend is determined as a key parameter, and the step of generating the risk prediction parameter comprises the steps of constructing a prediction curve based on one or more key parameters, and extracting parameters in a preset prediction period from the prediction curve as the risk prediction parameter. Pre