JP-7855541-B2 - Information processing device, information processing method, and computer program

Inventors

• 木村 和博
• 進 博正
• 福原 竜馬
• 志賀 慶明

Assignees

• 株式会社東芝
• 東芝エネルギーシステムズ株式会社

Dates

Publication Date

20260508

Application Date

20230322

Claims (19)

1. We obtain planned generation data for power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market. Based on the aforementioned planning data , if the change in the amount of power generated on the target day exceeds a threshold, a first event related to the change in the amount of power generated is detected. A processing unit that estimates the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market caused by the first event on the target date, The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the input unit allows the user to specify at least one piece of information regarding the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment. Equipped with, The processing unit determines whether the first event occurs based on the change in the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user , and whether the change in the total amount exceeds the threshold . Information processing device.
2. We obtain planned generation data for power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market. Based on the aforementioned planning data, if the difference between the change in the amount of power generated on the target day and the change in the amount of power generated on trading days prior to the target day exceeds a threshold, a first event related to the change in the amount of power generated is detected. A processing unit that estimates the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market caused by the first event on the target date, The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the input unit allows the user to specify at least one piece of information regarding the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment. Equipped with, The processing unit determines whether the first event occurs based on the change in the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user , and whether the difference between the change in the total amount on the target day and the change in the total amount on transaction days prior to the target day exceeds the threshold . Information processing device.
3. We obtain planned generation data for multiple power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market. Based on the aforementioned planning data, if the total change in the amount of power generated by the multiple power generation facilities located within the area covered by the aforementioned electricity market on the target day exceeds a threshold, a first event related to the change in power generation is detected. A processing unit that estimates the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market caused by the first event on the target date, The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the input unit allows the user to specify at least one piece of information regarding the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment. Equipped with, The processing unit determines whether the first event occurs based on the change in the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user , and whether the change in the total amount exceeds the threshold . Information processing device.
4. We obtain planned generation data for multiple power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market. Based on the aforementioned planning data, if the difference between the total change in the amount of power generated on the target day and the total change in the amount of power generated on trading days prior to the target day exceeds a threshold, a first event related to the change in the amount of power generated is detected. A processing unit that estimates the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market caused by the first event on the target date, The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the input unit allows the user to specify at least one piece of information regarding the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment. Equipped with, The processing unit determines whether the first event occurs based on the change in the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user, and whether the difference between the total on the target day and the total on transaction days prior to the target day exceeds the threshold . Information processing device.
5. We obtain planned generation data for power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market. As the aforementioned planning data, first planning data obtained at a first time point for the amount of power generated by the power generation facility on the target day, and second planning data obtained at a second time point prior to the first time point are obtained. Based on the difference between the first plan data and the second plan data, if a first event related to the change in the amount of power generated on the target day is detected, A processing unit that estimates the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market caused by the first event on the target date, The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the input unit allows the user to specify at least one piece of information regarding the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment. Equipped with, The processing unit determines whether or not the first event occurs based on the difference between the first plan data and the second plan data relating to the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user, based on the change in the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user . Information processing device.
6. The change in the amount of power generated is the decrease in the amount of power generated. The information processing apparatus according to claim 1.
7. The change in the amount of power generated is the decrease in the amount of power generated. The information processing apparatus according to claim 2.
8. The change in the total amount of power generated is the decrease in the total amount of power generated. The information processing apparatus according to claim 3.
9. The sum of the changes in the amount of power generated is the sum of the decreases in the amount of power generated. The information processing apparatus according to claim 4.
10. Computers We obtain planned generation data for power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market. Based on the aforementioned planning data , if the change in the amount of power generated on the target day exceeds a threshold, a first event related to the change in the amount of power generated is detected. On the aforementioned target date, estimate the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market caused by the first event, The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the information of at least one of the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment is received from the user. Based on the change in the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user, it is determined whether or not the first event occurs based on whether or not the change in the total amount exceeds the threshold . Information processing methods.
11. Computers We obtain planned generation data for power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market. Based on the aforementioned planning data, if the difference between the change in the amount of power generated on the target day and the change in the amount of power generated on trading days prior to the target day exceeds a threshold, a first event related to the change in the amount of power generated is detected. On the aforementioned target date, estimate the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market caused by the first event, The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the information of at least one of the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment is received from the user. Based on the change in the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user , the system determines whether or not the first event occurs based on whether the difference between the change in the total amount on the target day and the change in the total amount on transaction days prior to the target day exceeds the threshold . Information processing methods.
12. Computers We obtain planned generation data for multiple power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market. Based on the aforementioned planning data, if the total change in the amount of power generated by the multiple power generation facilities located within the area covered by the aforementioned electricity market on the target day exceeds a threshold, a first event related to the change in power generation is detected. On the aforementioned target date, estimate the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market caused by the first event, The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the information of at least one of the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment is received from the user. Based on the change in the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user, it is determined whether or not the first event occurs based on whether or not the change in the total amount exceeds the threshold . Information processing methods.
13. Computers We obtain planned generation data for multiple power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market. Based on the aforementioned planning data, if the difference between the total change in the amount of power generated on the target day and the total change in the amount of power generated on trading days prior to the target day exceeds a threshold, a first event related to the change in the amount of power generated is detected. On the aforementioned target date, estimate the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market caused by the first event, The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the information of at least one of the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment is received from the user. Based on the change in the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user , the system determines whether or not the first event occurs based on whether the difference between the total on the target day and the total on transaction days prior to the target day exceeds the threshold . Information processing methods.
14. Computers We obtain planned generation data for power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market. As the aforementioned planning data, first planning data obtained at a first time point for the amount of power generated by the power generation facility on the target day, and second planning data obtained at a second time point prior to the first time point are obtained. Based on the difference between the first plan data and the second plan data, if a first event related to the change in the amount of power generated on the target day is detected, On the aforementioned target date, estimate the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market caused by the first event, The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the information of at least one of the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment is received from the user. Based on the change in the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user, the system determines whether or not the first event occurs based on the difference between the first plan data and the second plan data relating to the total . Information processing methods.
15. The steps include obtaining planned data on the amount of electricity generated by power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market, and A step of detecting a first event related to the change in power generation when the amount of change in power generation on the target day exceeds a threshold based on the aforementioned planning data, The steps include: estimating the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market due to the first event on the target date; The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the step of receiving information on at least one of the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment from the user. The steps include determining whether the first event occurs based on the change in the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user, and whether the change in the total amount exceeds the threshold , A computer program that causes a computer to execute something.
16. The steps include obtaining planned data on the amount of electricity generated by power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market, and Based on the aforementioned planning data, a first event related to the change in power generation is detected when the difference between the change in power generation on the target day and the change in power generation on trading days prior to the target day exceeds a threshold . The steps include: estimating the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market due to the first event on the target date; The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the step of receiving information on at least one of the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment from the user. The steps include determining whether the first event occurs based on the change in the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user, and whether the difference between the change in the total amount on the target day and the change in the total amount on a transaction day prior to the target day exceeds the threshold , A computer program that causes a computer to execute something.
17. The steps include obtaining planned data on the amount of electricity generated by multiple power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market, Based on the aforementioned planning data, the first event related to the change in power generation is detected when the total change in the amount of power generated by the multiple power generation facilities located within the area covered by the aforementioned electricity market on the target day exceeds a threshold ; The steps include: estimating the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market due to the first event on the target date; The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the step of receiving information on at least one of the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment from the user. The steps include determining whether the first event occurs based on the change in the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user, and whether the change in the total amount exceeds the threshold , A computer program that causes a computer to execute something.
18. The steps include obtaining planned data on the amount of electricity generated by multiple power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market, Based on the aforementioned planning data, a first event related to the change in power generation is detected when the difference between the total change in power generation on the target day and the total change in power generation on trading days prior to the target day exceeds a threshold . The steps include: estimating the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market due to the first event on the target date; The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the step of receiving information on at least one of the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment from the user. The steps include determining whether the first event occurs based on the change in the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user , and whether the difference between the total on the target day and the total on transaction days prior to the target day exceeds the threshold , A computer program that causes a computer to execute something.
19. The steps include obtaining planned data on the amount of electricity generated by power generation facilities that generate electricity that can be traded in the electricity market, and The steps include obtaining, as the aforementioned planning data, first planning data obtained at a first time point for the amount of power generated by the power generation facility on the target day, and second planning data obtained at a second time point prior to the first time point, Based on the difference between the first plan data and the second plan data, if a first event related to the change in the amount of power generated on the target day is detected, The steps include: estimating the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market due to the first event on the target date; The planning data includes at least one of the cause of the fluctuation in the amount of power generated by the power generation equipment, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment, and the step of receiving information on at least one of the cause of the fluctuation, the type of the fluctuation, and the type of the power generation equipment from the user. The steps include determining whether or not the first event occurs based on the difference between the first plan data and the second plan data relating to the total amount of power generated by the power generation equipment that matches the information specified by the user, A computer program that causes a computer to execute something.

Description

This disclosure relates to an information processing device, an information processing method, and a computer program. In the dissemination and operation of renewable energy, it is sometimes necessary to probabilistically estimate future electricity market prices and bid volumes to meet the requirements of various applications. Since electricity demand and supply are primarily influenced by weather, good accuracy can be obtained by using weather forecasts from numerical weather simulators to estimate electricity market prices. For example, one method involves obtaining past market prices for weather conditions similar to the weather forecast for a given day, and then estimating various quantities related to the electricity market (price and bid volume). However, this method cannot predict rapid changes in the electricity market (such as price surges) in advance. Market prices are determined by various factors, including seasonal conditions, power generation equipment malfunctions, recent global events, and natural disasters. Therefore, methods that rely heavily on similar weather conditions may not be able to provide highly accurate predictions. Japanese Patent Publication No. 2019-96164 A functional block diagram of a price surge prediction device, which is an information processing device according to this embodiment.A diagram showing specific examples of electricity market performance data areas.A diagram showing concrete examples of electricity market performance data from across Japan.A diagram illustrating specific examples of weather forecast data.A diagram illustrating a specific example of power generation equipment shutdown plan data.This figure shows an example of output data from the price surge prediction device (prediction result calculation unit).A flowchart illustrating an example of the overall operation of the price surge prediction device shown in Figure 1.A flowchart illustrating an example of the operation of the data extraction range determination unit, the normal price prediction unit, and the prediction result calculation unit.A diagram showing an example of changing the data extraction range.A diagram showing an example of how to create searchable data.A schematic diagram illustrating the operation of the normal price forecasting unit.This diagram schematically illustrates an example of the calculation process of the prediction result calculation unit when the data extraction range is changed.A diagram showing another example of output data from the prediction result calculation unit.This figure shows an example of the hardware configuration of a price surge prediction device as an information processing device according to this embodiment. This embodiment will be described below with reference to the drawings. Figure 1 is a functional block diagram of the price surge prediction device 10, which is an information processing device according to this embodiment. The price surge prediction device 10 broadly comprises a processing unit 100, a data acquisition unit 200, a data storage unit 300, and an input unit 400. The processing unit 100 includes a price surge prediction function 100A, a normal state prediction function 100B, and a power market prediction function 100C. This embodiment determines whether the market price of electricity will surge on a given day, based on the operating status of a power plant (power generation equipment), specifically, the planned power generation amount of the power generation equipment. For example, it periodically or intermittently acquires data on the planned power generation reduction (shutdown amount) of power plants (power generation equipment) published on the Power Generation Information Disclosure Website (HJKS), and detects events related to changes in power generation (first event or power generation equipment-related event) based on the reduction amount or the change in the reduction amount from the previous day. Whether or not a power generation equipment-related event is detected is used to estimate whether or not a price surge will occur. If the first event is detected, it is determined that a price surge will occur; if the first event is not detected, it is determined that no price surge will occur. If it is determined that a price surge will occur, the amount of change in the market price of the electricity market due to the first event on the target day is estimated, and the market price on the target day is estimated based on this change. This allows for a highly accurate estimation of the market price even when a price surge occurs on the target day. For example, even if the power generation status of a power generation facility is suddenly interrupted or reduced on the target day due to unforeseen circumstances, the market price on the target day can be estimated with high accuracy. Furthermore, the reduction in power generation at a power plant is also called the "stoppage amount," meaning that power generation is stopped by the