KR-20260064528-A - METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR CONSTRUCTING FLOW SCENARIOS CONSIDERING DROUGHT CONDITIONS

KR20260064528AKR 20260064528 AKR20260064528 AKR 20260064528AKR-20260064528-A

Abstract

The present invention provides a method for constructing a flow rate scenario for a drought situation for a hydrological scenario, comprising receiving precipitation data, performing a drought frequency analysis based on the precipitation data to derive an annual precipitation deficit, dividing the annual precipitation deficit by month based on a pre-calculated average monthly precipitation to calculate a monthly precipitation deficit, deriving a monthly precipitation based on the monthly precipitation deficit, deriving a daily precipitation corresponding to the monthly precipitation using a pre-implemented month-day precipitation relationship model, distinguishing between precipitation days and non-precipitation days for the points of the daily precipitation to generate a daily temperature scenario for each point, and constructing a flow rate scenario for a drought situation by performing a rainfall runoff analysis based on the daily precipitation and the temperature scenario.

Inventors

김태웅
권현한
유도근
전창현
김장경
임헌욱

Assignees

주식회사 베이지안웍스
한양대학교 에리카산학협력단

Dates

Publication Date: 20260507
Application Date: 20251015

Claims (14)

In a method for constructing a flow rate scenario for drought conditions for hydrological scenarios, Step of receiving precipitation data; A step of deriving the annual precipitation deficit by performing drought frequency analysis based on the above precipitation data; A step of calculating the monthly precipitation deficit by dividing the annual precipitation deficit into monthly portions based on a pre-calculated average monthly precipitation amount, and deriving the monthly precipitation amount based on the monthly precipitation deficit; A step of deriving daily precipitation corresponding to the monthly precipitation using a pre-implemented monthly-daily precipitation relationship model, and generating a daily temperature scenario for each location by distinguishing between precipitation days and non-precipitation days for the locations of the daily precipitation; and A method for constructing a flow rate scenario for a drought situation for a hydrological scenario, comprising the step of constructing a flow rate scenario for a drought situation by performing rainfall runoff analysis based on the above daily precipitation and temperature scenarios.
In claim 1, the step of generating the temperature scenario is, A step of determining the precipitation days and the non-precipitation days based on the above daily precipitation amount; A method for constructing a flow rate scenario for a drought situation for a hydrological scenario, comprising the step of calculating a normal temperature value for each precipitation day corresponding to the precipitation day and a normal temperature value for each non-precipitation day corresponding to the non-precipitation day, based on daily temperature data corresponding to the precipitation data.
In claim 1, the step of constructing the flow rate scenario is, A step of determining a first flow rate and a second flow rate using an S-Curve based on a time variable corresponding to the rainfall data; and A method for constructing a flow rate scenario for a drought situation for a hydrological scenario, comprising the step of calculating a final outflow amount by summing the groundwater outflow amount according to a first flow rate map and the surface outflow amount according to a second flow rate map.
In claim 3, the step of calculating the final outflow amount is, A step of deriving the water level of a flood tracking reservoir based on the above first flow rate diagram; A step of calculating the groundwater outflow based on the water level and base flow rate of the flood tracking reservoir; A step of calculating the indicator outflow amount based on the second flow rate diagram above; and A method for constructing a flow rate scenario for a drought situation for a hydrological scenario, comprising the step of calculating the final outflow amount by summing the groundwater outflow amount and the surface outflow amount.
In paragraph 4, the step of specifying the first flow rate and the second flow rate is, A method for constructing a drought condition flow scenario for a hydrological scenario, specifying a first flow graph representing a rainfall amount corresponding to 90 percent in an S-Curve according to the above time variable, and a second flow graph representing a rainfall amount corresponding to 10 percent.
In Article 5, The step of constructing the above flow rate scenario is, A method for constructing a drought condition flow rate scenario for a hydrological scenario, which performs the rainfall runoff analysis based on the GR4J (Generateur de Ruissellement de 4 parametres Journalier) model.
In Article 1, The step of deriving the above annual precipitation deficit is, A method for constructing a flow rate scenario for a drought situation for a hydrological scenario, characterized by deriving the annual precipitation deficit by performing a drought frequency analysis on the bivariate of drought duration and drought severity based on the above precipitation data.
In claim 1, the step of receiving the precipitation data is A method for constructing a flow scenario for drought conditions, receiving precipitation data observed during a predetermined population period from an observation station installed in a specific region.
In claim 8, the step of deriving the annual precipitation deficit is, A step of identifying drought events in which the drought duration is greater than or equal to a predetermined unit period in precipitation data observed during the above population period; and A method for constructing a flow rate scenario for a drought situation, comprising the step of constructing a model for a drought frequency exhibiting non-stationarity based on the above-mentioned specific drought event.
In claim 9, the step of constructing a model for the above drought frequency is, A step of selecting the drought duration and the distribution of the annual precipitation deficit for the aforementioned specified drought event; A step of estimating a joint probability distribution according to each of the selected distributions above; and A method for constructing a flow rate scenario for drought conditions, comprising the step of constructing a non-stationary model representing drought frequency based on the above-mentioned estimated joint probability distribution.
In claim 1, the step of deriving the monthly precipitation amount is, A step of calculating the monthly precipitation deficit from the annual precipitation deficit based on the monthly precipitation ratio according to the average monthly precipitation of a normal year; and A method for constructing a flow rate scenario for drought conditions, comprising the step of calculating the monthly precipitation amount by subtracting the monthly precipitation deficit from the average monthly precipitation amount of the normal year.
In claim 1, the step of deriving the annual precipitation deficit is, A method for constructing a flow rate scenario for a drought situation, comprising the step of performing the above drought frequency analysis based on a climate change scenario to derive the above annual precipitation deficit in a future drought situation caused by climate change.
An input unit for receiving precipitation data; and A drought condition flow rate scenario construction system comprising a control unit that performs drought frequency analysis based on the above precipitation data to derive an annual precipitation deficit, calculates a monthly precipitation deficit by dividing the above annual precipitation deficit into months based on a pre-calculated average monthly precipitation, derives a monthly precipitation based on the above monthly precipitation deficit, derives a daily precipitation corresponding to the above monthly precipitation using a pre-implemented month-day precipitation relationship model, generates a daily temperature scenario for each point by distinguishing between precipitation days and non-precipitation days for the points of the above daily precipitation, and constructs a flow rate scenario in a drought condition by performing rainfall runoff analysis based on the above daily precipitation and the above temperature scenario.
A program that is executed by one or more processes in an electronic device and stored on a computer-readable recording medium, The above program is, In a method for constructing a flow rate scenario for drought conditions for hydrological scenarios, Step of receiving precipitation data; A step of deriving the annual precipitation deficit by performing drought frequency analysis based on the above precipitation data; A step of calculating the monthly precipitation deficit by dividing the annual precipitation deficit into monthly portions based on a pre-calculated average monthly precipitation amount, and deriving the monthly precipitation amount based on the monthly precipitation deficit; A step of deriving daily precipitation corresponding to the monthly precipitation using a pre-implemented monthly-daily precipitation relationship model, and generating a daily temperature scenario for each location by distinguishing between precipitation days and non-precipitation days for the locations of the daily precipitation; and A program stored on a computer-readable recording medium characterized by including instructions for performing a step of constructing a flow rate scenario in drought conditions by performing rainfall runoff analysis based on the above daily precipitation and temperature scenarios.

Description

Method and System for Constructing Flow Scenes Considering Drought Conditions The present invention relates to a method and system for constructing a flow rate scenario for drought conditions for hydrological scenarios. Drought is a phenomenon caused by a long-term regional or seasonal shortage of precipitation, and the risk of drought continues to increase due to the variability of annual precipitation and regional variations. To effectively manage these drought issues from the perspective of water resource management, the need for a drought assessment system is emerging. Accordingly, research on drought frequency analysis is actively underway with the goal of developing leading technologies for drought and establishing a national drought management system, and drought assessments are primarily being conducted based on three factors. First, it is known that when performing drought frequency analysis, it is advantageous in terms of drought risk assessment to conduct multivariate frequency analysis by considering drought severity, which refers to the amount of precipitation lacking during the average return period, and drought duration, which refers to the period during which precipitation falls short of a certain threshold. Securing a large amount of data is essential for such drought frequency analysis, and point frequency analysis, which utilizes data from a single point, and local frequency analysis, which uses data from clustered watersheds, are primarily used. Here, point frequency analysis is known to have somewhat insufficient statistical reliability, whereas local frequency analysis is known to reduce uncertainty and improve reliability as the observation period for precipitation increases. As such, the conventional drought frequency analysis process involves a goodness-of-fit test and the selection of the optimal probability distribution type through statistical analysis of the constructed data, but it does not consider the dependence on the duration of the drought and thus fails to reflect non-stationary trends. Consequently, problems are found that lead to underestimation or overestimation of the return period in terms of drought preparedness. FIG. 1 illustrates an example of specifying a drought event. FIG. 2 illustrates an example of a drought return period derived according to drought frequency analysis. FIG. 3 illustrates a drought scenario derivation system according to the present invention. Figure 4 is a flowchart illustrating a method for deriving drought scenarios according to the present invention. Figure 5 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a method for performing drought frequency analysis. FIG. 6 illustrates an example of deriving the annual precipitation deficit by considering climate change scenarios. FIG. 7 illustrates an example of deriving monthly precipitation from annual precipitation deficit. FIG. 8 illustrates an example of deriving daily precipitation from monthly precipitation. FIG. 9 illustrates an example of deriving daily average temperature values based on temperature data. FIG. 10 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a method for constructing a flow rate scenario by performing rainfall runoff analysis. Hereinafter, embodiments disclosed in this specification will be described in detail with reference to the attached drawings. Identical or similar components are assigned the same reference number regardless of the drawing symbols, and redundant descriptions thereof will be omitted. The suffixes "module" and "part" used for components in the following description are assigned or used interchangeably solely for the ease of drafting the specification and do not have distinct meanings or roles in themselves. Furthermore, in describing the embodiments disclosed in this specification, if it is determined that a detailed description of related prior art could obscure the essence of the embodiments disclosed in this specification, such detailed description will be omitted. Additionally, the attached drawings are intended only to facilitate understanding of the embodiments disclosed in this specification; the technical concept disclosed in this specification is not limited by the attached drawings, and it should be understood that they include all modifications, equivalents, and substitutions that fall within the spirit and technical scope of the present invention. Terms including ordinal numbers, such as first, second, etc., may be used to describe various components, but said components are not limited by said terms. These terms are used solely for the purpose of distinguishing one component from another. When it is stated that one component is "connected" or "connected" to another component, it should be understood that while it may be directly connected or connected to that other component, there may also be other components in between. On the other hand, when it is stated that one component is "directly connected" or "directly connected" to another component, i