US-20260128945-A1 - METHOD FOR OPERATING A SERVICE PROVISION NETWORK, CONTROL DEVICE FOR CARRYING OUT SUCH A METHOD AND SERVICE PROVISION NETWORK HAVING SUCH A CONTROL DEVICE

US20260128945A1US 20260128945 A1US20260128945 A1US 20260128945A1US-20260128945-A1

Abstract

A method for operating a service provision network includes: providing the service provision network includes a first service provision device with a predeterminable performance and a second service provision device with a non-predeterminable performance; determining an operating plan for operating the network via a prediction horizon, depending on a load prediction of a load demand to the network and a performance prediction for the second service provision device for the prediction horizon, which is a respectively same predetermined prediction horizon; determining the operating plan depending on a load confidence interval of the load prediction and on a performance confidence interval of the performance prediction, such that, at any point in time within the prediction horizon, a current performance prediction for the network is at least as great as a current upper limit of the load confidence interval; and operating then the service provision network according to the operating plan.

Inventors

Carsten Schäfer
Alexander Bernhard
Dennis Beermann

Assignees

Rolls-Royce Solutions GmbH

Dates

Publication Date: 20260507
Application Date: 20250120
Priority Date: 20220720

Claims (12)

1 . A method for operating a service provision network, the method comprising the steps of: providing that the service provision network includes at least one first service provision device with a predeterminable performance and at least one second service provision device with a non-predeterminable performance; determining an operating plan for operating the service provision network at least via a prediction horizon, depending on a load prediction of a load demand to the service provision network and a performance prediction for the at least one second service provision device for the prediction horizon, which is a respectively same predetermined prediction horizon; determining, additionally, the operating plan, depending on a load confidence interval of the load prediction and on a performance confidence interval of the performance prediction, such that, at any point in time within the prediction horizon, a current performance prediction for the service provision network is at least as great as a current upper limit of the load confidence interval; and operating then the service provision network according to the operating plan.
2 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein the method includes the step of determining, additionally, the operating plan, depending on the load confidence interval of the load prediction and on the performance confidence interval of the performance prediction, such that, at any point in time within the prediction horizon, the current performance prediction for the service provision network, taking into account the performance confidence interval, is at least as great as the current upper limit of the load confidence interval.
3 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein the current performance prediction for the service provision network is calculated as a sum of a current lower limit of the performance confidence interval and a current performance of the at least one first service provision device.
4 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein the operating plan is determined depending upon at least one secondary condition.
5 . The method according to claim 4 , wherein a plurality of costs of the service provision network are minimized as the at least one secondary condition.
6 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein the operating plan is determined by way of robust optimization.
7 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein at least one confidence interval, selected from the load confidence interval and the performance confidence interval, is determined from a plurality of historical values.
8 . The method according to claim 7 , wherein a plurality of deviations of the plurality of historical values of a plurality of historical value predictions assigned to the plurality of historical values are determined, and wherein a lower limit and an upper limit of the at least one confidence interval are determined based on the plurality of deviations which are determined, such that, for a predetermined proportion of the plurality of deviations, a sum of (a) a respective one of the plurality of deviations and (b) at least one of (i) the load prediction and (ii) the performance prediction is within a respective one of the at least one confidence interval.
9 . The method according to claim 8 , wherein the predetermined proportion depends on (i) a demand parameter, (ii) a relevance of a facility to be supplied with a service or an application, and (iii) a system relevance value.
10 . The method according to claim 8 , wherein the predetermined proportion depends on (i) a demand parameter, (ii) a customer request, (iii) a relevance of a facility to be supplied with a service or an application, and (iv) a system relevance value.
11 . A control device of a service provision network, the control device comprising: the control device, which is structured and arranged to perform a method for operating the service provision network, the method including the steps of: providing that the service provision network includes at least one first service provision device with a predeterminable performance and at least one second service provision device with a non-predeterminable performance; determining an operating plan for operating the service provision network at least via a prediction horizon, depending on a load prediction of a load demand to the service provision network and a performance prediction for the at least one second service provision device for the prediction horizon, which is a respectively same predetermined prediction horizon; determining, additionally, the operating plan, depending on a load confidence interval of the load prediction and on a performance confidence interval of the performance prediction, such that, at any point in time within the prediction horizon, a current performance prediction for the service provision network is at least as great as a current upper limit of the load confidence interval; and operating then the service provision network according to the operating plan.
12 . A service provision network, comprising: a control device; at least one first service provision device with a predeterminable performance; and at least one second service provision device with a non-predeterminable performance, the control device being structured and arranged to perform a method for operating the service provision network, the method including the steps of: determining an operating plan for operating the service provision network at least via a prediction horizon, depending on a load prediction of a load demand to the service provision network and a performance prediction for the at least one second service provision device for the prediction horizon, which is a respectively same predetermined prediction horizon; determining, additionally, the operating plan, depending on a load confidence interval of the load prediction and on a performance confidence interval of the performance prediction, such that, at any point in time within the prediction horizon, a current performance prediction for the service provision network is at least as great as a current upper limit of the load confidence interval; and operating then the service provision network according to the operating plan.

Description

CROSS REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS This is a continuation of PCT application no. PCT/EP2023/069830, entitled “METHOD FOR OPERATING A SERVICE PROVISION NETWORK, CONTROL DEVICE FOR CARRYING OUT SUCH A METHOD AND SERVICE PROVISION NETWORK HAVING SUCH A CONTROL DEVICE”, filed Jul. 17, 2023, which is incorporated herein by reference. PCT application no. PCT/EP2023/069830 claims priority to German patent application no. 10 2022 118 176.6, filed Jul. 20, 2022, which is incorporated herein by reference. BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to service provision networks. 2. Description of the Related Art Generally, service provision devices physically track the load demands placed on them. An operating plan for a service provision network can be developed for a prediction horizon depending on a load prediction for the service provision network. However, the probability of the load prediction actually occurring accurately is generally very low. Thus, there is also a very high probability of unwanted system behavior occurring in the prediction horizon due to a non-occurrence of a load prediction, especially in the worst case scenario of insufficient performance being available in the service provision network. Moreover, a performance prediction for the prediction horizon can be created for the operation of a service provision device with non-predeterminable performance, in particular a photovoltaic system, in order to develop the operating plan for the service provision network including the service provision device with non-predeterminable performance. Regarding the performance prediction, the probability that the performance prediction will actually occur exactly is very low. Thus, there is a very high probability that undesirable system behavior will occur in the prediction horizon due to a performance prediction not occurring, in particular in the worst case scenario of insufficient performance being available in the service provision network. A disadvantage of such methods for determining the operating plan for the service provision network is that the uncertainties of the load prediction and/or performance prediction are not considered. What is needed in the art is a method for operating a service provision network, a control device for carrying out such a method, and a service provision network including such a control device, wherein the aforementioned disadvantages are rectified, at least partially, and are optionally avoided. SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention relates to a method for operating a service provision network, a control device for carrying out such a method, and a service provision network having such a control device. The present invention provides a method for operating a service provision network having at least one first service provision device with predeterminable performance and at least one second service provision device with non-predeterminable performance. Depending on a load prediction of a load demand to the service provision network, and a performance prediction for the at least one second service provision device for the respectively same predetermined prediction horizon, an operating plan for operating the service provision network is determined at least via the prediction horizon. The operating plan is additionally determined depending on a load-confidence interval of the load prediction and a performance-confidence interval of the performance prediction in such a way that, at any point in time within the prediction horizon, a current performance prediction for the service provision network—in particular taking into account the performance confidence interval—is at least as great as a current upper limit of the load confidence interval. The service provision network is subsequently operated according to the operating plan. By considering the confidence intervals it is advantageously possible to include the uncertainties of the load prediction and the performance prediction in the determination of the operating plan, thereby reducing and/or avoiding the probability of undesirable system behavior. A first performance of the at least one first service provision device with a predeterminable performance is designated P1. First performance P/is specified in particular by the operating plan; in particular, the operating plan serves to determine first performance P1 for the prediction horizon. In addition, a second performance of the at least one second service provision device with non-predeterminable performance is designated P2, whereby within the prediction horizon second performance P2 is determined based on the performance prediction. In addition, the load demand for the service provision network is designated Pload. In addition, the current upper limit of the load confidence interval is designated Pload,max. In addition, the current lower limit of the load confidence interval is designated Pload,min. In addition, the